Trump's Approval Drops to 29 Percent, the Lowest in Either Term, in New Poll

A new poll puts President Donald Trump's approval rating at 29 percent, six weeks before the midterm elections. It is the lowest reading of either of his terms.

The survey from American Research Group was taken September 16 to 20 among 1,100 American adults. It found 29 percent approve of the job Trump is doing and 68 percent disapprove. On the economy, the numbers were even lower: only 26 percent approved of his handling of it. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

Newsweek reported it is the first time his approval has dropped below 30 percent across both of his terms in the White House.

Other recent surveys point the same way, though not as low. A Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll released September 23 put his approval at 33 percent with 63 percent disapproving, which it described as a new low for his second term. A Wall Street Journal survey also found his rating at a record low for his time in office.

One poll is a snapshot. Different pollsters use different methods, samples and question wording, and polling averages typically run higher than any single low reading. American Research Group surveys adults in general, not just registered or likely voters, which can move the numbers. Supporters of the president point out that he has been written off by pollsters before, including in 2016 and again in 2024, and won both times.

But the direction of the numbers matters for his party. The midterms are set for November 3, with control of the House and Senate on the line. Historically, a president's approval rating is one of the strongest signals of how his party will do in a midterm, and the president's party usually loses House seats even when his numbers are healthy.

Campaigns on both sides will be watching the economy number closely. A 26 percent rating on the economy is lower than his overall approval.

Democrats, for their part, are using the numbers to argue the House is within reach. Republicans counter that polls this far out have been wrong before and that turnout, not approval, decides midterms.

The White House has dismissed low polls in the past as biased against the president, and his allies say his base remains solid. Whether the September numbers hold, or bounce back in October, could decide how much of Washington changes hands in November.

Every one of the 435 House seats is on the ballot in November, along with about a third of the Senate. Low approval for a sitting president has often meant heavy House losses for his party.

With a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, the true figure in the American Research Group survey could sit a few points higher or lower, but either way it is at the bottom of his range.

In 2018, the last midterm of Trump's first term, Republicans lost about 40 House seats and control of the chamber.

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